🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Juventus at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Bologna encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Allianz Stadium plays host to Juventus versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Juventus have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 6W 3D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bologna (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Juventus, 1.80 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Juventus have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 9 meetings, with Bologna managing just 0 victories and 6 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Juventus winning.

The historical record gives Juventus a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 47% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 43% | Bologna 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.60 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.329 / defence 0.827 | Bologna attack 1.173 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.162. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 Juventus games / 70 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juventus 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.70. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights