Juventus 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Stadium plays host to Juventus versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 6W 3D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bologna (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Juventus, 1.80 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Juventus have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 9 meetings, with Bologna managing just 0 victories and 6 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Juventus winning.
The historical record gives Juventus a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 47% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 43% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.60 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.329 / defence 0.827 | Bologna attack 1.173 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.162. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 Juventus games / 70 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.70. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Juventus 1.60 / Bologna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.329 / def 0.827 | Bologna attack 1.173 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Juventus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bologna xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Bologna kick off?
Juventus vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Juventus 2 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Juventus vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Bologna part of?
Juventus vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juventus and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
Record (9 meetings): Juventus 3W | Draws 6 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Juventus and Bologna in?
Juventus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.33x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.17x) against Juventus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.02
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.72
1.13
Bologna xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Juventus and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Juventus and 1.13 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventus come into this having played 70 games, going 35W 25D 10L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.57 PPG from 70 outings (30W 20D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Juventus against 1.57 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventus's home form reads 20W 13D 2L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.51 points per game from 35 outings (14W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventus are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.41 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Bologna in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 35W 25D 10L in their last 70 games (1.86 PPG), while Bologna have gone 30W 20D 20L in their last 70 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Bologna away?
Juventus's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.09 PPG; Bologna away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Juventus or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
6
Draws
0
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Bologna have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Bologna?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 43%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juventus) and 57% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juventus's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juventus's recent games and 57% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Bologna tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bologna in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Bologna 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.60 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Bologna attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 43%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.86 PPG, Bologna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.