🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Inter (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face Inter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Torino and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico di Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico di Torino: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Inter have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.90 PPG clear of Torino in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, Inter have the stronger historical record — 8 wins to Torino's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 0–5 with Inter winning.

It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Torino half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Inter half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 46% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 42% | Inter 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.20 xG and Inter 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.147 / defence 1.150 | Inter attack 1.443 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.132. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Torino games / 71 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Torino 24% | Draw 23% | Inter 53%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Inter 1.89. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Torino 60% | Inter 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights