Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Atalanta (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Atalanta at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Unipol Domus. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cagliari, 4 for Atalanta and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 49% versus Atalanta 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Atalanta 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.83 xG and Atalanta 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.870 / defence 0.956 | Atalanta attack 1.105 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.122. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 Cagliari games / 71 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 26% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 44%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Atalanta 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 20% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 26% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Cagliari 0.83 / Atalanta 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.870 / def 0.956 | Atalanta attack 1.105 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atalanta xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Atalanta kick off?
Cagliari vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Cagliari 3 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Cagliari vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Atalanta part of?
Cagliari vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 26% chance of winning, Atalanta a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cagliari and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Atalanta?
Record (7 meetings): Cagliari 2W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 4W.
What form are Cagliari and Atalanta in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.87) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
26%
3.90
30%
3.33
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.01
1.19
Atalanta xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.19 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 17W 18D 36L from 71 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 36W 20D 15L across 71 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 11W 8D 16L from 35 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 18W 10D 7L across 35 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.73 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 18D 36L in their last 71 games (0.97 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 36W 20D 15L in their last 71 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.17 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Atalanta runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cagliari
1
Draws
4
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Atalanta?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Atalanta have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 40%, Atalanta 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cagliari) and 46% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 49%; Cagliari have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cagliari's recent matches and 43% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cagliari's recent games and 46% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Atalanta tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Atalanta 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Atalanta 3-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.83 xG and Atalanta 1.19 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atalanta outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Atalanta attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 26% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 44%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Atalanta 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.