Lazio 3-3 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lazio host Udinese at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lazio 1.50 PPG, Udinese 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Lazio have won 2, Udinese 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lazio in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 45% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 44% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.004 / defence 1.046 | Udinese attack 1.213 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.128. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Lazio games / 71 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 50% | Udinese 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Lazio 1.25 / Udinese 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.004 / def 1.046 | Udinese attack 1.213 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Udinese xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Udinese kick off?
Lazio vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Lazio 3 - 3 Udinese.
Where is Lazio vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Udinese part of?
Lazio vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 33% chance of winning, Udinese a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lazio and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
Record (9 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 5 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Lazio and Udinese in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.00x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.88
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.69
1.43
Udinese xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lazio and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lazio and 1.43 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio come into this having played 71 games, going 30W 22D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.23 PPG from 71 outings (24W 15D 32L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.58 PPG, Udinese on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lazio's home form reads 14W 14D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.23 points per game from 35 outings (12W 7D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 30W 22D 19L in their last 71 games (1.58 PPG), while Udinese have gone 24W 15D 32L in their last 71 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Udinese away?
Lazio's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.60 PPG; Udinese away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Lazio or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Udinese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lazio's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lazio
6
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 2, Udinese have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 60%, Udinese 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Lazio) and 51% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lazio's games and 60% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Lazio's recent games and 51% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Udinese tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Udinese share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Udinese finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.43 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Udinese attack 1.21 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 44%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.58 PPG, Udinese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.