Parma 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Parma (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Parma face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Pisa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season.
Pisa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Pisa have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Parma. A 1.20 PPG lead over Pisa (1.60 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 44% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.52 xG and Pisa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.742 / defence 1.145 | Pisa attack 0.721 / defence 1.619. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.145. Parma's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.619 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Parma games / 33 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 51% | Draw 26% | Pisa 24%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 4.17. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 51% | Draw 26% | Pisa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Parma 1.52 / Pisa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.742 / def 1.145 | Pisa attack 0.721 / def 1.619 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Parma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pisa xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Pisa kick off?
Parma vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Pisa?
Parma 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Parma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Pisa part of?
Parma vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 51% chance of winning, Pisa a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Parma and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
Record (7 meetings): Parma 3W | Draws 3 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Parma and Pisa in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.74) and Pisa's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.72x) against Parma's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.87
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Parma xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Pisa xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Parma and 0.95 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 16W 27D 28L from 71 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 27L across 71 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Parma against 1.30 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 8W 12D 15L from 35 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 12D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.21 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Pisa in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 16W 27D 28L in their last 71 games (1.06 PPG), while Pisa have gone 24W 20D 27L in their last 71 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.03 PPG; Pisa away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Parma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Parma
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Pisa?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 60%, Pisa 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Parma) and 54% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 31% of games; Pisa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Parma's games and 51% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Parma's recent games and 54% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Pisa tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pisa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.52 xG and Pisa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Pisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.62, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 51% | Draw 26% | Pisa 24%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 44%, Pisa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.06 PPG, Pisa 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.