Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Atalanta at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fiorentina at 1.80 PPG versus Atalanta's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Atalanta 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Atalanta trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 58% and Atalanta 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 75% | Atalanta 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.57 xG and Atalanta 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.479 / defence 1.159 | Atalanta attack 1.148 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.431. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Fiorentina games / 24 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 30% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 44%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Atalanta 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 50% | Atalanta 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 30% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Fiorentina 1.57 / Atalanta 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.479 / def 1.159 | Atalanta attack 1.148 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Atalanta xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Atalanta kick off?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is Fiorentina vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Atalanta part of?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 30% chance of winning, Atalanta a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fiorentina and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Atalanta in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.48) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
30%
3.32
26%
3.81
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.48
1.91
Atalanta xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
4%
22.34
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.91 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 24 games, going 12W 3D 9L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.62 PPG, Atalanta on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 7W 1D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.45 points per game from 11 outings (8W 3D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.83 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.92 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 12W 8D 4L in their last 24 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Atalanta have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 54%, Atalanta 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 64% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Atalanta in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fiorentina's games and 64% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 64% of Atalanta's.
Do Fiorentina and Atalanta tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Atalanta 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.57 xG and Atalanta 1.91 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.48 / defence 1.16 against Atalanta attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 30% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 44%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 75%, Atalanta 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Atalanta's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.62 PPG, Atalanta 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.