Napoli 1-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Torino at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have gone 7W 0D 0L from 7 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.57 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.43 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Torino — All Games: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Torino have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 1.86 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.14) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Torino in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 43% versus Torino 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 71% | Torino 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.49 xG and Torino 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.048 / defence 0.863 | Torino attack 0.738 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.531. Data: 7 Napoli games / 7 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 26% | Torino 25%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 4.00. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 33% | Torino 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 26% | Torino 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Napoli 1.49 / Torino 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.048 / def 0.863 | Torino attack 0.738 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Napoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Torino xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Torino kick off?
Napoli vs Torino kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Torino?
Napoli 1 - 0 Torino.
Where is Napoli vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Torino part of?
Napoli vs Torino is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 49% chance of winning, Torino a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Napoli and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Torino in?
Napoli (all comps): 7W-0D-0L in 7 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.57 / GA 0.43 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Torino (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.05) and Torino's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.83
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.47
0.97
Torino xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Napoli and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Napoli and 0.97 for Torino, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Napoli have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 7W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L).
On the road, Torino have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded. Napoli's scoring rate against Torino's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Torino in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 7W 0D 0L in their last 7 games (3.00 PPG), while Torino have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Torino away?
Napoli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 3.00 PPG; Torino away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Napoli or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Torino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2023, when Napoli won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Torino specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Napoli
1
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 7, Torino have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Torino?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 33%, Torino 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Napoli and 33% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Torino in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Napoli's recent matches and 67% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Napoli's recent games and 33% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Torino tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Torino in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Torino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Torino 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.49 xG and Torino 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Torino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Torino attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 49% | Draw 26% | Torino 25%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 71%, Torino 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Torino's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.