Napoli 3-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Napoli at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 28 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Napoli (all games): 8W 1D 0L across 9 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.78 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.11 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.33 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 9 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 4W 0D 0L this season (4 games, 3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.11. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.45 in Napoli's favour (2.78 vs 1.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 33% versus Bologna 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 56% | Bologna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 2.06 xG and Bologna 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.994 / defence 0.819 | Bologna attack 0.711 / defence 1.620. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.463. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.620 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Napoli games / 9 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 65% | Draw 20% | Bologna 15%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Bologna 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 25% | Bologna 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 65% | Draw 20% | Bologna 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Napoli 2.06 / Bologna 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.994 / def 0.819 | Bologna attack 0.711 / def 1.620 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Napoli (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Bologna kick off?
Napoli vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli 3 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Napoli vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Bologna part of?
Napoli vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 65% chance of winning, Bologna a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Napoli and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Bologna in?
Napoli (all comps): 8W-1D-0L in 9 | 2.78 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.11 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Napoli's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.71x) against Napoli's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
65%
1.53
20%
4.98
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.91
0.85
Bologna xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
53.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Napoli and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Napoli and 0.85 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli's recent record stands at 8W 1D 0L from 9 games, a 2.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 3L across 9 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 1.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.67 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna in 67%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Bologna in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 8W 1D 0L in their last 9 games (2.78 PPG), while Bologna have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Bologna away?
Napoli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 3.00 PPG; Bologna away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Napoli or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Napoli
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Napoli 2-3 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Bologna?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 25%, Bologna 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Napoli) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Napoli's recent matches and 75% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Napoli's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Bologna 3-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 2.06 xG and Bologna 0.85 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Bologna attack 0.71 / defence 1.62, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 65% | Draw 20% | Bologna 15%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 56%, Bologna 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.