Waterford 2-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waterford face Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Drogheda United travel to Regional Sports Centre to take on Waterford in Premier Division (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Monday 18 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Waterford have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Drogheda United — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Drogheda United away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Waterford) versus 1.00 (Drogheda United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Waterford, 3 for Drogheda United and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2026, ended Waterford 0–2 Drogheda United — a Drogheda United win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 55% versus Drogheda United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 55% | Drogheda United 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waterford surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Drogheda United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.87 xG and Drogheda United 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.932 / defence 1.153 | Drogheda United attack 1.132 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.240. Drogheda United's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 52 games and Drogheda United's last 52.
Result probabilities: Waterford 44% | Draw 23% | Drogheda United 33%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.30 | Draw 4.31 | Drogheda United 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form (Waterford's last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 68% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waterford 70% (last 10 home games) | Drogheda United 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 11 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 18 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 44% | Draw 23% | Drogheda United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Waterford 1.87 / Drogheda United 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.932 / def 1.153 | Drogheda United attack 1.132 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Waterford (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Drogheda United xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Drogheda United FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Drogheda United kick off?
Waterford vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 18 May 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Waterford 2 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Waterford vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Drogheda United part of?
Waterford vs Drogheda United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 11) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 44% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Waterford and Drogheda United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waterford vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.93x the league average against Drogheda United's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 52 games and Drogheda United's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
44%
2.30
23%
4.31
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Waterford xG
Total xG
3.49
1.62
Drogheda United xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Drogheda United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Waterford and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Waterford and 1.62 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford's recent record stands at 25W 12D 36L from 73 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 20W 28D 25L across 73 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.19 PPG, Drogheda United on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 13W 7D 16L from their last 36 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 6W 14D 16L across their last 36 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Drogheda United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Drogheda United Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 12D 36L in their last 73 games (1.19 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 25L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Drogheda United away?
Waterford's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.28 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Waterford or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waterford's record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
4
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Drogheda United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Drogheda United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Drogheda United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Drogheda United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Waterford 3-1 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 61%, Drogheda United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Waterford) and 47% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 28% of games; Drogheda United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Drogheda United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Drogheda United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waterford's games and 53% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Drogheda United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Waterford's recent games and 47% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Drogheda United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Waterford's recent matches and 69% of Drogheda United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waterford edge out Drogheda United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Drogheda United 2-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.87 xG and Drogheda United 1.62 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Drogheda United attack 1.13 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 44% | Draw 23% | Drogheda United 33%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 55%, Drogheda United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.19 PPG, Drogheda United 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.