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Poisson model favours Derry City (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waterford face Derry City.

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Match Analysis

Waterford host Derry City at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Waterford — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Regional Sports Centre, Waterford have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derry City — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Waterford.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–4 with Derry City winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Team Stats

Waterford have played 37 games this season, recording 12W 6D 19L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 7-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 7 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 37 games (5%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Across 36 matches this season, Derry City have gone 18W 9D 9L. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 7-2 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game, 0.19 reds per game.

Derry City have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.10 per game versus 1.60 for the hosts. Derry City lead on clean sheets this season (12 vs 5). Penalty activity: Waterford 2/2 vs Derry City 2/2 this season.

In-Play Profile

Waterford in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Derry City in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Derry City 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.02 xG and Derry City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.853 / defence 1.105 | Derry City attack 0.805 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.212. Data: 51 Waterford games / 52 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Derry City 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 70% | Derry City 40%.

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