Bohemians 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 2D 3L at Dalymount Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians against 1.50 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Bohemians, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Sligo Rovers — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with Bohemians winning.
The historical record gives Bohemians a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Sligo Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.31 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.872 / defence 0.910 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.781 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.061. Data: 46 Bohemians games / 46 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 35% | Sligo Rovers 18%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Sligo Rovers 5.56. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Sligo Rovers 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 35% | Sligo Rovers 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Bohemians 1.31 / Sligo Rovers 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.872 / def 0.910 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.781 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sligo Rovers xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 47% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 4W | Draws 2 | Sligo Rovers 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.87) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.78x) against Bohemians's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
47%
2.14
35%
2.88
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.06
0.75
Sligo Rovers xG
2.14
47%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.75 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 26W 18D 28L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 18D 30L from 72 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians against 1.25 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (14W 8D 14L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 10W 8D 18L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 64% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 64% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.31 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 47% | Draw 35% | Sligo Rovers 18%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.