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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 48%, yet in-form Derry City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Derry City away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Derry City show 18W 9D 9L from 36 outings in Premier Division. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 7-2 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game, 0.19 reds per game.

Trading Data

Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Derry City 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.21 xG and Derry City 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.130 / defence 0.780 | Derry City attack 0.742 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.061. Derry City's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 10 Dundalk games / 46 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 48% | Draw 36% | Derry City 16%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.08 | Draw 2.78 | Derry City 6.25. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.

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