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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 3 for Shamrock Rovers and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

St Patrick's Athl.'s full-season record stands at 13W 13D 10L from 36 games. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Shamrock Rovers's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 19W 9D 8L from 36 matches. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Shamrock Rovers have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (18 vs 12). Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 4/4 vs Shamrock Rovers 1/1 this season.

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.94 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.393 / defence 0.728 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.059 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.114. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 St Patrick's Athl. games / 46 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 14%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 7.14. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Shamrock Rovers 70%.

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