📋

Poisson model favours Shelbourne (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shelbourne face Waterford.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 18 as Shelbourne welcome Waterford to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Shelbourne — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tolka Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shelbourne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waterford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shelbourne: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Waterford, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Season Statistics

Shelbourne's full-season record stands at 15W 14D 7L from 36 games. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

In-Play Data

Shelbourne trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Waterford trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | Waterford 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 2.05 xG and Waterford 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.949 / defence 1.292 | Waterford attack 0.838 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.230. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Shelbourne games / 53 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 54% | Draw 22% | Waterford 24%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Waterford 4.17. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Waterford 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights