Drogheda United 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Drogheda United at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 5W 2D 3L at Weavers Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Drogheda United's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dundalk's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Drogheda United 1W, Dundalk 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 50% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Drogheda United 39% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.67 xG and Dundalk 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.844 / defence 0.911 | Dundalk attack 1.038 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.243. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Drogheda United games / 17 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 3.85. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Dundalk lead the H2H ledger, but Drogheda United carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 40% | Dundalk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Drogheda United 1.67 / Dundalk 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.844 / def 0.911 | Dundalk attack 1.038 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dundalk xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 48% chance of winning, Dundalk a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): Drogheda United 1W | Draws 3 | Dundalk 3W.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 0.84x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.04x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 53/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.81
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.84
1.18
Dundalk xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
20.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.18 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 12W 15D 9L from 36 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 20L across 36 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Drogheda United by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 1W 6D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Drogheda United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 12W 15D 9L in their last 36 games (1.42 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.67 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dundalk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 50%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Drogheda United) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Drogheda United's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Drogheda United's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Drogheda United and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 18, as Drogheda United and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.67 xG and Dundalk 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Dundalk attack 1.04 / defence 1.34, drawn from 53/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 39%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.