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Poisson rates Drogheda United at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Dundalk encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Drogheda United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 5W 2D 3L at Weavers Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.

Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Dundalk have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Drogheda United's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dundalk's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Drogheda United 2W, Dundalk 2W, 3D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 12W 15D 9L from their 36 Premier Division appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.1 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 14 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 6 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 36 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-1-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Trading & In-Play

Drogheda United — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 50% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Drogheda United 39% | Dundalk 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.67 xG and Dundalk 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.844 / defence 0.911 | Dundalk attack 1.038 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.243. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Drogheda United games / 17 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Drogheda United 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 3.85. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 40% | Dundalk 60%.

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