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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Drogheda United have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bohemians, 1.00 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Stats

Across 36 matches this season, Bohemians have gone 16W 6D 14L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Trading

Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Drogheda United half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Drogheda United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Drogheda United 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.83 xG and Drogheda United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.918 / defence 1.035 | Drogheda United attack 1.186 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.212. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Bohemians games / 51 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Drogheda United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 64% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Drogheda United 50%.

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