Larisa 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Larisa and PAOK meet at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1 (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Larisa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
PAOK have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, PAOK have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, PAOK are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Larisa, 1 for PAOK and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Larisa 0–1 PAOK — a PAOK win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Larisa — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 52% versus PAOK 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 38% | PAOK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.82 xG and PAOK 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.731 / defence 1.317 | PAOK attack 1.245 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.159. Larisa's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.245, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Larisa's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. Data: built from Larisa's last 21 games and PAOK's last 46.
Result probabilities: Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 6.62 | Draw 4.44 | PAOK 1.60. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Larisa's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Larisa 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Larisa 0.82 / PAOK 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.731 / def 1.317 | PAOK attack 1.245 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: PAOK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.90
PAOK xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Larisa vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Larisa vs PAOK kick off?
Larisa vs PAOK kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs PAOK?
Larisa 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Larisa vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs PAOK part of?
Larisa vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 15% chance of winning, PAOK a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Larisa and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Larisa vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Larisa's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.25x) against Larisa's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from Larisa's last 21 games and PAOK's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
15%
6.62
23%
4.44
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.72
1.90
PAOK xG
6.62
15%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
44.28
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Larisa vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Larisa and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Larisa and 1.90 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Larisa's recent record stands at 4W 8D 9L from 21 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 2L across 21 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.38 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Larisa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 2W 2D 5L from their last 9 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across their last 9 away games, a 1.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.00 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Larisa (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Larisa
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Larisa vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Larisa and PAOK in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while PAOK have gone 15W 4D 2L in their last 21 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.89 PPG; PAOK away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Larisa or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Larisa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PAOK in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Larisa and PAOK, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Larisa
1
Draws
1
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Larisa vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and PAOK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Larisa have won 0, PAOK have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Larisa and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Larisa 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 44%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Larisa) and 67% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Larisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAOK in 44%; Larisa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Larisa vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Larisa and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Larisa's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Larisa and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Larisa's matches and 67% of PAOK's.
Do Larisa and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Larisa's recent matches and 89% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Larisa and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.82 xG and PAOK 1.90 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAOK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.32 against PAOK attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 38%, PAOK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Larisa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.