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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

AEK Athens FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AEK Athens FC at Allwyn Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Historically, AEK Athens FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Levadiakos managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.

The historical record gives AEK Athens FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

Levadiakos — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 34% versus Levadiakos 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 40% | Levadiakos 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.94 xG and Levadiakos 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.288 / defence 0.763 | Levadiakos attack 1.314 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.150. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 AEK Athens FC games / 47 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 55% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 21%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Levadiakos 4.76. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Levadiakos 80% BTTS from recent games.

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