🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates OFI at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

OFI host Larisa at Pankritio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

OFI — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 5W 0D 5L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Larisa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.60 PPG versus Larisa's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for OFI, 0 for Larisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with OFI winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

OFI in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Larisa in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 41% versus Larisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 73% | Larisa 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and Larisa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.067 / defence 1.039 | Larisa attack 0.870 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.136. Data: 47 OFI games / 22 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 28% | Larisa 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Larisa 4.17. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: OFI 30% | Larisa 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights