Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Mönchengladbach (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Weserstadion to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at Weserstadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 49% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.791 / defence 1.180 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.901 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.460. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Werder Bremen games / 53 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Werder Bremen 40% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Werder Bremen 1.26 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.791 / def 1.180 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.901 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 29% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (9 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 3 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.79x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
29%
3.42
28%
3.52
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.81
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
6%
16.16
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.55 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 18W 15D 20L from 53 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 24L across 53 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.30 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 9D 9L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.47 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.27 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 46%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Werder Bremen) and 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Werder Bremen's matches and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 20, as Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.30 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.