Werder Bremen 0-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1899 Hoffenheim (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host 1899 Hoffenheim at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weserstadion, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1899 Hoffenheim — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
1899 Hoffenheim have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Werder Bremen's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 50% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 64% | 1899 Hoffenheim 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.16 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.859 / defence 1.164 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.104 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.480. Data: 52 Werder Bremen games / 52 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 21% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 53%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1.89. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 40% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 21% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Werder Bremen 1.16 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.859 / def 1.164 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.104 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.90
1899 Hoffenheim xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 21% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (8 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 5W.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.86) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
21%
4.69
26%
3.90
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.90
1899 Hoffenheim xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
3%
31.42
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.90 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 15D 19L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 18W 14D 20L from 52 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.33 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.62 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.32 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
1899 Hoffenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
7
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 48%, 1899 Hoffenheim 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Werder Bremen) and 56% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 32% of games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Werder Bremen's games and 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Werder Bremen's matches and 56% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.16 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.90 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 21% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 53%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, 1899 Hoffenheim 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.33 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.