🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 3D 4L at WWK Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

FC St. Pauli (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC St. Pauli's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward FC Augsburg. A 0.50 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Augsburg 1W, FC St. Pauli 1W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus FC St. Pauli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | FC St. Pauli 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.29 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.799 / defence 1.040 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.770 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.460. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 FC Augsburg games / 53 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 31% | FC St. Pauli 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | FC St. Pauli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 50% | FC St. Pauli 50%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights