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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face Werder Bremen.

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Analysis

Werder Bremen make the trip to Europa-Park-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Europa-Park-Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Werder Bremen (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Werder Bremen's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 1.00 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (1.40 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours SC Freiburg, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against Werder Bremen — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with SC Freiburg winning.

The historical record gives SC Freiburg a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 59% versus Werder Bremen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 67% | Werder Bremen 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.91 xG and Werder Bremen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.116 / defence 0.898 | Werder Bremen attack 0.733 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. Data: 54 SC Freiburg games / 54 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 17%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Werder Bremen 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | Werder Bremen 40% BTTS from recent games.

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