Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to Borussia-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borussia-Park, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borussia-Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.70 PPG versus VfB Stuttgart's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 5, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% versus VfB Stuttgart 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | VfB Stuttgart 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.943 / defence 1.065 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.436 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.473. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 52 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 54%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 1.85. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 / VfB Stuttgart 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.943 / def 1.065 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.436 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.25
VfB Stuttgart xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 24% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (9 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 5W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.42
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.74
2.25
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
11%
9.52
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
2%
40.17
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.25 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 18W 11D 23L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 17L across 52 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.25 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 9W 6D 11L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 11W 7D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.87 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 11D 23L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 24W 11D 17L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.27 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, VfB Stuttgart 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 77% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 65% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 77% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.25 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.44 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 54%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.