1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host Union Berlin at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 6W 0D 4L at PreZero Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
1899 Hoffenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for 1899 Hoffenheim, 5 for Union Berlin and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 66% versus Union Berlin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Union Berlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.03 xG and Union Berlin 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.347 / defence 0.854 | Union Berlin attack 0.792 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.460. 1899 Hoffenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 1899 Hoffenheim games / 53 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 16%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Union Berlin 6.25. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Union Berlin lead the H2H ledger, but 1899 Hoffenheim carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.03 / Union Berlin 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.347 / def 0.854 | Union Berlin attack 0.792 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Union Berlin xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 60% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
Record (9 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 3W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 5W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.35x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.21
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.02
0.99
Union Berlin xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
47.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.99 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 19W 14D 20L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 16W 17D 20L from 53 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.34 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.13 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Union Berlin away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.35 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 69%, Union Berlin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 46% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 42% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 46% of Union Berlin's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Union Berlin 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.03 xG and Union Berlin 0.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.35 / defence 0.85 against Union Berlin attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 16%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 60%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.34 PPG, Union Berlin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.