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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 2D 1L at MHPArena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena.

SC Freiburg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 3 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | SC Freiburg 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG and SC Freiburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.908 / defence 0.968 | SC Freiburg attack 0.916 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.470. Data: 53 VfB Stuttgart games / 53 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 26%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 3.85. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.

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