Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 2D 0L at Signal Iduna Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 60% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 62% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.48 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.280 / defence 0.763 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.785 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.459. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Borussia Dortmund games / 53 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 18% | 1. FC Heidenheim 10%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | 1. FC Heidenheim 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 18% | 1. FC Heidenheim 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.48 / 1. FC Heidenheim 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.280 / def 0.763 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.785 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.87
1. FC Heidenheim xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 72% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 3W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.28) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
72%
1.40
18%
5.50
10%
9.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.35
0.87
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
9.76
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
8%
11.95
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
116.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.87 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 29W 12D 12L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 10W 10D 33L from 53 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Heidenheim.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.27 PPG from 26 outings (18W 5D 3L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 6W 4D 16L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 0.98 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 games (1.87 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 10D 33L in their last 53 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.27 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 54%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Borussia Dortmund and 62% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.48 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.87 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.28 / defence 0.76 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 18% | 1. FC Heidenheim 10%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.