🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

RB Leipzig — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — RB Leipzig at 1.50 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

RB Leipzig hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Augsburg, with 4 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 6–0 with RB Leipzig winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 55% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 60% | FC Augsburg 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.08 xG and FC Augsburg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.118 / defence 1.134 | FC Augsburg attack 0.896 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.356. Data: 58 RB Leipzig games / 58 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 4.00. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 70% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights