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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Borussia Dortmund have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while FC Augsburg have managed just 2 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 63% versus FC Augsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 66% | FC Augsburg 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.46 xG and FC Augsburg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.331 / defence 0.880 | FC Augsburg attack 0.864 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.396. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Borussia Dortmund games / 59 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | FC Augsburg 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 50% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.

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