SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Europa-Park-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park-Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to SC Freiburg's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 57% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.033 / defence 0.868 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.004 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.356. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 SC Freiburg games / 58 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG SC Freiburg 1.39 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.033 / def 0.868 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.004 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bayer Leverkusen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 41% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (9 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 2 | Bayer Leverkusen 5W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.03) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.00x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.71
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.58
1.18
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.18 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 13D 20L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.93 PPG from 58 outings (32W 16D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 16W 6D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.86 points per game from 28 outings (14W 10D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 25W 13D 20L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 16D 10L in their last 58 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.93 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for SC Freiburg, 68% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for SC Freiburg and 57% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of SC Freiburg's matches and 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 32%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.