Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Leipzig make the trip to Volksparkstadion to face Hamburger SV in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.20 for RB Leipzig. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hamburger SV lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 62% versus RB Leipzig 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | RB Leipzig 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.36 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.948 / defence 0.977 | RB Leipzig attack 1.080 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.356. Data: 22 Hamburger SV games / 57 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | RB Leipzig 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | RB Leipzig 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hamburger SV 1.36 / RB Leipzig 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.948 / def 0.977 | RB Leipzig attack 1.080 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.43
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Hamburger SV 1 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig part of?
Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.95) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.08x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 22/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.77
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.79
1.43
RB Leipzig xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.43 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 22W 19D 15L from 56 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 15L across 56 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.59 for RB Leipzig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 13W 11D 4L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 10W 9D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 19D 15L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 24W 17D 15L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or RB Leipzig away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.79 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
2
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 68%, RB Leipzig 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hamburger SV) and 50% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 46%; RB Leipzig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hamburger SV's games and 43% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hamburger SV's matches and 50% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out Hamburger SV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Hamburger SV 1-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.36 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against RB Leipzig attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 22/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 38%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, RB Leipzig 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.52 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.