🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Union Berlin at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form

Union Berlin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Union Berlin against 0.60 for Werder Bremen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Union Berlin 5W, Werder Bremen 3W, 1D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Werder Bremen winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Union Berlin — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 53% versus Werder Bremen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | Werder Bremen 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.47 xG and Werder Bremen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / defence 0.948 | Werder Bremen attack 0.724 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.378. Data: 58 Union Berlin games / 58 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Werder Bremen 4.17. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 60% | Werder Bremen 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights