🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Mewa Arena, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 0.50 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, VfB Stuttgart have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to FSV Mainz 05's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VfB Stuttgart have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 57% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 52% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / defence 0.900 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.416 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.356. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 FSV Mainz 05 games / 58 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights