VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as VfB Stuttgart welcome RB Leipzig to MHPArena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (VfB Stuttgart) versus 1.80 (RB Leipzig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 5 for RB Leipzig and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 63% versus RB Leipzig 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 73% | RB Leipzig 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.51 xG and RB Leipzig 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.085 / defence 0.870 | RB Leipzig attack 1.106 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.373. Data: 59 VfB Stuttgart games / 59 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | RB Leipzig 32%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | RB Leipzig 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | RB Leipzig 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | RB Leipzig 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.51 / RB Leipzig 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.085 / def 0.870 | RB Leipzig attack 1.106 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.32
RB Leipzig xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 41% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 3W | Draws 1 | RB Leipzig 5W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.08x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.79
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.84
1.32
RB Leipzig xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.32 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 28W 13D 18L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 27W 17D 15L from 59 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.64 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (16W 4D 9L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 11W 9D 9L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.71 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 28W 13D 18L in their last 59 games (1.64 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 27W 17D 15L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or RB Leipzig away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.79 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.45 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2021, when RB Leipzig won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 59%, RB Leipzig 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (VfB Stuttgart) and 52% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; RB Leipzig in 45%; RB Leipzig in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 45% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 52% of RB Leipzig's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out RB Leipzig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig 1-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.51 xG and RB Leipzig 1.32 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Leipzig landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against RB Leipzig attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | RB Leipzig 32%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, RB Leipzig 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.64 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.