🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face Borussia Dortmund.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as 1. FC Köln welcome Borussia Dortmund to RheinEnergieStadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at RheinEnergieStadion, 1. FC Köln have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against 1. FC Köln's 2 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 60% and Borussia Dortmund 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 55% | Borussia Dortmund 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.872 / defence 1.098 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.225 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.392. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 1. FC Köln games / 58 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 25% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Dortmund 1.92. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights