Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfB Stuttgart away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfB Stuttgart are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 80% of VfB Stuttgart's (from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2026, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 2–3 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 69% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.898 / defence 1.113 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.497 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack rating of 1.497, which lifts their away xG to 2.48. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 67 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 67.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 28% | Draw 19% | VfB Stuttgart 53%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.63 | Draw 5.26 | VfB Stuttgart 1.87. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (1.78 / 2.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 28% | Draw 19% | VfB Stuttgart 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 / VfB Stuttgart 2.48 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.898 / def 1.113 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.497 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
2.48
VfB Stuttgart xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 28% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.90) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 2.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 67 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
28%
3.63
19%
5.26
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 3
6.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
4.27
2.48
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.63
28%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.21
Clean Sheet
8%
12.00
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
2%
43.56
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.48 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 67 games, going 28W 19D 20L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.66 PPG from 67 outings (32W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.54 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 17W 7D 9L across their last 33 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 33 away games (13W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.99 scored and 1.49 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 28W 19D 20L in their last 67 games (1.54 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 32W 15D 20L in their last 67 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.76 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 61%, VfB Stuttgart at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 82% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 70% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 82% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 82% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 2-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.48 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.50 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 28% | Draw 19% | VfB Stuttgart 53%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 66%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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