VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.90 for Bayer Leverkusen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to VfB Stuttgart's 1, with 4 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 4–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and Bayer Leverkusen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 71% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / defence 0.774 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.078 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.485. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 VfB Stuttgart games / 66 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.47 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / def 0.774 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.078 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bayer Leverkusen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 42% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 4 | Bayer Leverkusen 4W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.01) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.08x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.79
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.24 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 31W 15D 20L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 36W 19D 11L from 66 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.92 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.79 PPG from 33 outings (18W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 12D 4L from 33 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.09 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 67%.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 31W 15D 20L in their last 66 games (1.64 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 36W 19D 11L in their last 66 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.79 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VfB Stuttgart and 61% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, Bayer Leverkusen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.64 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.