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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.

Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.90 for Bayer Leverkusen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to VfB Stuttgart's 1, with 4 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 4–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and Bayer Leverkusen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 71% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / defence 0.774 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.078 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.485. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 VfB Stuttgart games / 66 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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