Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 4D 3L at — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.10 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Union Berlin, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 62% and Eintracht Frankfurt 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 62% | Eintracht Frankfurt 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.86 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.974 / defence 1.011 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.025 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.885 / away 1.445. Data: 34 Union Berlin games / 34 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.23. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Union Berlin 1.86 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.974 / def 1.011 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.025 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.885 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 3 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (9 meetings): Union Berlin 4W | Draws 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.97x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.16
23%
4.42
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.36
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.50 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. Union Berlin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 12L across 34 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. Eintracht Frankfurt haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 5W 7D 5L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 4W 7D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.79 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 74%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Pre-Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.29 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
4
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 71%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Union Berlin and 71% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Union Berlin's games and 88% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Union Berlin's matches and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 3-3 at , Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.86 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 62%, Eintracht Frankfurt 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.