SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 40%, yet in-form RB Leipzig provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees RB Leipzig travel to Europa-Park-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 5W 3D 2L at Europa-Park-Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour RB Leipzig, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for SC Freiburg.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
It is worth noting that RB Leipzig have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus RB Leipzig 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | RB Leipzig 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.57 xG and RB Leipzig 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.973 / defence 0.944 | RB Leipzig attack 1.038 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. Data: 67 SC Freiburg games / 67 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 40% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 36%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 40% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG SC Freiburg 1.57 / RB Leipzig 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.973 / def 0.944 | RB Leipzig attack 1.038 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
RB Leipzig xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg 4 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 40% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (9 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 3 | RB Leipzig 6W.
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.97) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.15
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.04
1.46
RB Leipzig xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.46 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 28W 15D 24L from 67 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 17L across 67 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.48 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 17W 8D 8L from 33 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 13W 9D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.76 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 28W 15D 24L in their last 67 games (1.48 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 33W 17D 17L in their last 67 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.79 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.45 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 76%, RB Leipzig 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Freiburg and 54% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 39%; RB Leipzig in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of SC Freiburg's games and 48% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Freiburg's matches and 54% of RB Leipzig's.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat RB Leipzig 4-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.57 xG and RB Leipzig 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against RB Leipzig attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 40% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 36%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, RB Leipzig 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.48 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.