Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Hamburger SV to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bayer Leverkusen at BayArena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bayer Leverkusen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for Hamburger SV and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 67% and Hamburger SV 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 61% | Hamburger SV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 xG and Hamburger SV 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.334 / defence 0.922 | Hamburger SV attack 0.788 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Bayer Leverkusen games / 33 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 72% | Draw 15% | Hamburger SV 12%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | Hamburger SV 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 72% | Draw 15% | Hamburger SV 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 62% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 / Hamburger SV 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.334 / def 0.922 | Hamburger SV attack 0.788 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hamburger SV xG
62%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 72% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 1W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.33x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.51
12%
8.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.83
1.08
Hamburger SV xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.51
15%
Draw
8.07
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
6%
15.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
1%
126.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.08 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 36W 19D 12L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 25W 21D 21L from 67 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hamburger SV.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (19W 7D 7L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 11W 8D 14L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 66%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 36W 19D 12L in their last 67 games (1.90 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 25W 21D 21L in their last 67 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Hamburger SV away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.94 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
0
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 64%, Hamburger SV 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Bayer Leverkusen and 70% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 61% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 70% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 34, as Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 xG and Hamburger SV 1.08 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against Hamburger SV attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 72% | Draw 15% | Hamburger SV 12%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, Hamburger SV 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.