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Poisson model favours FC Augsburg (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face FC Augsburg.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Union Berlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

FC Augsburg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, FC Augsburg have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Union Berlin's 1, with 4 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that FC Augsburg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 57% versus FC Augsburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 55% | FC Augsburg 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.33 xG and FC Augsburg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.821 / defence 1.167 | FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. Data: 67 Union Berlin games / 67 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 30% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 46%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 2.17. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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