FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host VfL Wolfsburg at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 0.60 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 43% versus VfL Wolfsburg 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 42% | VfL Wolfsburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.662 / defence 1.085 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.958 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 FC St. Pauli games / 67 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.39 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.662 / def 1.085 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.958 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 34% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.66) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.08
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.94
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.55 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 14W 16D 37L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 17W 18D 32L from 67 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 0.87 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (7W 10D 16L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 7D 14L from 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.46 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 70%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 16D 37L in their last 67 games (0.87 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 18D 32L in their last 67 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.94 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 42%, VfL Wolfsburg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC St. Pauli) and 61% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat FC St. Pauli 1-3 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 42%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.87 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.