1. FC Köln 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as 1. FC Köln face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Köln welcome Borussia Dortmund to RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, 1. FC Köln have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from 1. FC Köln's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Borussia Dortmund have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for 1. FC Köln.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1. FC Köln 0–1 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 60% and Borussia Dortmund 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 55% | Borussia Dortmund 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.872 / defence 1.098 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.225 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.392. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.87. Data: built from 1. FC Köln's last 24 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 58.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 25% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 4.02 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Dortmund 1.92. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.23 / 1.87) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Köln's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Köln 80% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 25% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG 1. FC Köln 1.23 / Borussia Dortmund 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.872 / def 1.098 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.225 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Borussia Dortmund xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?
1. FC Köln 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 25% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Köln's last 24 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
25%
4.02
23%
4.35
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.11
1.87
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.02
25%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
26.14
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.87 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 13D 21L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 32W 13D 13L from 58 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 7D 9L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 12W 8D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.10 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1. FC Köln (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Köln
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 24W 13D 21L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 32W 13D 13L in their last 58 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.59 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.52 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2020. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2023, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 6-1 1. FC Köln.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: 1. FC Köln 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 69%, Borussia Dortmund at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Köln and 62% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of 1. FC Köln's games and 69% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 83% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.87 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.82, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 25% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 52%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, Borussia Dortmund 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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