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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host 1. FC Köln at Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's home record at Volksparkstadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hamburger SV are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1. FC Köln in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 63% and 1. FC Köln 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | 1. FC Köln 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.846 / defence 0.989 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.724 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.369. Data: 25 Hamburger SV games / 25 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 21%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Köln 4.76. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | 1. FC Köln 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hamburger SV 4 – 5 1. FC Köln • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Hamburger SV 67% / Draw 0% / 1. FC Köln 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 53% / draw 26% / away 21% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.68 (50% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 52% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W • 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Hamburger SV home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 1 • 1. FC Köln away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Hamburger SV lead by 0.50 PPG (1.30 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson projects 1.70 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (1. FC Köln): Poisson xG of 0.98 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.80 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.68 (50% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Hamburger SV 7/10, 1. FC Köln 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Hamburger SV — Hamburger SV at 53% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Hamburger SV 1.70 / 1. FC Köln 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.846 / def 0.989 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.724 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.98
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln?
• Record (3 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hamburger SV 4 – 5 1. FC Köln • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Hamburger SV 67% / Draw 0% / 1. FC Köln 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 53% / draw 26% / away 21% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.68 (50% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 52% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln in?
• Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W • 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Hamburger SV home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 1 • 1. FC Köln away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Hamburger SV lead by 0.50 PPG (1.30 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson projects 1.70 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (1. FC Köln): Poisson xG of 0.98 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.80 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.68 (50% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Hamburger SV 7/10, 1. FC Köln 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Hamburger SV — Hamburger SV at 53% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture