Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Signal Iduna Park plays host to Borussia Dortmund versus Bayern München in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Bayern München's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.40 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.30 for Bayern München — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Bayern München hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 65% | Bayern München 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.58 xG and Bayern München 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.340 / defence 0.821 | Bayern München attack 1.774 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.368. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.774 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Borussia Dortmund games / 57 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 31% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 47%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Bayern München 2.13. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayern München if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | Bayern München 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 31% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.58 / Bayern München 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.340 / def 0.821 | Bayern München attack 1.774 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Bayern München xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 3 Bayern München.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance of winning, Bayern München a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München?
Record (9 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 3 | Bayern München 5W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.34x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayern München's attack (1.77x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
31%
3.27
22%
4.47
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.58
1.99
Bayern München xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
4%
24.04
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.99 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 57 games, going 32W 13D 12L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayern München sit at 2.49 PPG from 57 outings (44W 10D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 20W 5D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Borussia Dortmund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bayern München have taken 2.39 points per game from 28 outings (20W 7D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.23 scored and 0.93 conceded. Borussia Dortmund's scoring rate against Bayern München's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayern München in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 32W 13D 12L in their last 57 games (1.91 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 44W 10D 3L in their last 57 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.32 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bayern München in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bayern München go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayern München won 0-4 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayern München — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Borussia Dortmund
3
Draws
6
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 1, Bayern München have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 54%, Bayern München 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Dortmund and 82% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bayern München in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 57% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 82% of Bayern München's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Borussia Dortmund 2-3 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.58 xG and Bayern München 1.99 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Bayern München attack 1.77 / defence 0.70, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 31% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 47%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 65%, Bayern München 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayern München's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.