SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Elversberg (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Elversberg make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Elversberg have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Elversberg have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SV Elversberg are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SV Elversberg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SV Elversberg have the stronger record — 3 wins to SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–6 SV Elversberg — a SV Elversberg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SV Elversberg have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% versus SV Elversberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SV Elversberg 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while SV Elversberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and SV Elversberg 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / defence 1.312 | SV Elversberg attack 1.167 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.358. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 59 games and SV Elversberg's last 59.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.12 | Draw 4.33 | SV Elversberg 1.90. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.38 / 2.08) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 / SV Elversberg 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / def 1.312 | SV Elversberg attack 1.167 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.08
SV Elversberg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.02x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (1.17x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 59 games and SV Elversberg's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
24%
4.12
23%
4.33
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.46
2.08
SV Elversberg xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
13%
7.99
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
3%
32.90
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.08 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 14D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.78 PPG from 59 outings (30W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.76 points per game from their last 29 away games (14W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 14D 28L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.24 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.76 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won SV Elversberg 6-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%, SV Elversberg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 48% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 55% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 48% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 69% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Elversberg 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and SV Elversberg 2.08 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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