Hertha BSC 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees VfL Bochum travel to Olympiastadion to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Hertha BSC) versus 1.30 (VfL Bochum). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 2 for VfL Bochum and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 56% versus VfL Bochum 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 54% | VfL Bochum 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and VfL Bochum 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.887 / defence 0.974 | VfL Bochum attack 0.859 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.346. Data: 59 Hertha BSC games / 25 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Bochum 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | VfL Bochum 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Hertha BSC 1.32 / VfL Bochum 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.887 / def 0.974 | VfL Bochum attack 0.859 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
VfL Bochum xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 40% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum?
Record (5 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | VfL Bochum 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.89x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.33
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.13
VfL Bochum xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.13 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 15D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Bochum sit at 0.93 PPG from 59 outings (13W 16D 30L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hertha BSC's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Bochum have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (4W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.14 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 13W 16D 30L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Bochum away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.24 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum?
From 7 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when VfL Bochum 0-1 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 52%, VfL Bochum 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hertha BSC) and 48% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 31% of games; VfL Bochum in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hertha BSC's games and 59% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 48% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and VfL Bochum 1.13 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against VfL Bochum attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, VfL Bochum 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.