Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Arminia Bielefeld welcome SC Paderborn 07 to SchücoArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. SC Paderborn 07's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Arminia Bielefeld's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Arminia Bielefeld, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 3–4 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 56% and SC Paderborn 07 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 48% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.10 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.920 / defence 1.065 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.943 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.332. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 Arminia Bielefeld games / 59 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 40%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | SC Paderborn 07 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.10 / SC Paderborn 07 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.920 / def 1.065 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.943 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.34
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Arminia Bielefeld 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 29% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.92) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
29%
3.44
30%
3.28
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.44
1.34
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.34 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 6D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 14W 5D 6L from 25 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.64 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 64%.
Last 25 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 14W 5D 6L in their last 25 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.42 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 58%, SC Paderborn 07 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 26, as Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.10 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 40%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 48%, SC Paderborn 07 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.