Karlsruher SC 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to BBBank Wildpark to take on Karlsruher SC. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Karlsruher SC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Karlsruher SC 1.30 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karlsruher SC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Karlsruher SC have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 4–1 with Karlsruher SC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Karlsruher SC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 65% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karlsruher SC 72% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.96 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.142 / defence 1.272 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.990 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.325. Data: 60 Karlsruher SC games / 60 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Karlsruher SC 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.96 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.142 / def 1.272 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.990 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 March 2026 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Karlsruher SC 3 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 44% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (7 meetings): Karlsruher SC 5W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Karlsruher SC's attack at 1.14x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.19
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
3.63
1.67
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
5%
22.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.67 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 17D 20L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (18W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karlsruher SC on 1.43 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 15W 7D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (8W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.40 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.79 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karlsruher SC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Karlsruher SC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karlsruher SC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Karlsruher SC
1
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 6, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Karlsruher SC 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 66%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Karlsruher SC and 62% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Karlsruher SC's games and 55% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-1 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.96 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karlsruher SC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.14 / defence 1.27 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 72%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.43 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.