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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Avnet-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg at Avnet-Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Darmstadt 98 are 0.90 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 56% versus SV Darmstadt 98 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 64% | SV Darmstadt 98 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.836 / defence 1.374 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.358. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 1. FC Magdeburg games / 59 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 27% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.00. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 2W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 6 – 4 SV Darmstadt 98 • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% / Draw 20% / SV Darmstadt 98 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 27% / draw 23% / away 50% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.61 (70% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L • SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W • 1. FC Magdeburg home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 2 • SV Darmstadt 98 away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: SV Darmstadt 98 lead by 0.90 PPG (1.90 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (1. FC Magdeburg): Poisson projects 1.52 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson projects 2.09 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.61 (70% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 69% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on SV Darmstadt 98 — SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 27% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 / SV Darmstadt 98 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.836 / def 1.374 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
2.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 27% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
• Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 2W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 6 – 4 SV Darmstadt 98 • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% / Draw 20% / SV Darmstadt 98 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 27% / draw 23% / away 50% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.61 (70% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
• 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L • SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W • 1. FC Magdeburg home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 2 • SV Darmstadt 98 away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: SV Darmstadt 98 lead by 0.90 PPG (1.90 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (1. FC Magdeburg): Poisson projects 1.52 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson projects 2.09 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.61 (70% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 69% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on SV Darmstadt 98 — SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture